Predicted grades: how Dubai schools set them, how universities use them, and what to do if yours look low

A UK university will decide whether to make your child an offer months before a single final exam is sat. The number it reads is not an exam result. It is a teacher's professional judgement, written down in Year 13 and sent with the application. Those are predicted grades, and for most IB and A Level students in Dubai and Sharjah they are the most important numbers on the application.

Many families first look closely at them in September of Year 13, when the prediction is almost settled. This guide covers where they come from, when they are fixed, how universities read them, and what to do if one feels wrong.

What predicted grades actually are

UCAS defines a predicted grade as the grade a school or college believes the student is likely to achieve in positive circumstances. Its guidance to schools on predicted grades sets out a few principles worth knowing as a parent:

• Predictions should be aspirational but achievable, and based on demonstrable evidence of performance
• They should be informed by data such as past performance, internal assessments and current work
• They are a matter of the teacher's professional judgement
• They should be set independently of the universities and courses the student is applying to
• They should be finalised by the time the application is submitted

The fourth point matters most. A prediction is not supposed to rise because a course asks for higher grades. A school following the guidance will not move Chemistry from A to A star because a medicine course asks for it.

For an A Level student, the school predicts a grade for each subject. For an IB Diploma student, schools typically predict a grade for each of the six subjects and a points total including the core.

How schools usually arrive at a prediction

Every school has its own process, so ask yours. What follows is common practice across British and IB schools, not any one school's policy. Most build a prediction from several pieces of evidence rather than one exam:

1. End of Year 12 examinations. For many schools this is the single heaviest piece of evidence, because it is the last full, timed assessment before the application.
2. Mock or internal examinations across Year 12, marked against real mark schemes.
3. Coursework and internal assessment. For IB students this includes early work on internal assessments and the Extended Essay. For A Level students, any non-exam assessment.
4. Classwork, homework and the teacher's view of trajectory. Is the student improving, steady or slipping?
5. Prior attainment. IGCSE or GCSE results often inform the starting expectation, especially in subjects continued from Year 11.

The subject teacher usually proposes the grade, and a head of department or sixth form lead often reviews it for consistency.

The practical conclusion is simple. By the time a prediction is written, most of the evidence already exists. The end of Year 12 is where predicted grades are really earned, not September of Year 13.

How UCAS and universities use predicted grades

For UK applications, predicted grades travel with the school reference. UCAS says universities use them in a variety of ways to assess an application and a student's potential, including whether to make a conditional offer, and that each university's own admissions policy decides exactly how.

Three consequences follow.

The prediction sets the ceiling of your realistic shortlist. If a course typically asks for A star AA and the prediction is ABB, an offer is unlikely however strong the personal statement is. Build the shortlist around the prediction, with a spread above and below it.

The offer is conditional on the real result. A student predicted AAA who then achieves ABB may lose the place. UCAS's June 2025 report on predicted grades noted that around half of UK 18 year olds were predicted AAA or above in 2024, while 26 per cent of accepted applicants actually secured AAA or above. A generous prediction is not a gift if the grades do not follow.

Final results reach the university separately. On results day, final A Level and IB results go to universities, and the offer is confirmed or not against them.

What US universities do with them

Predictions matter in the US too, because final IB and A Level results arrive after decisions. MIT's international applicant page, for example, asks that predicted grades be sent if available and says only admitted students need to send final grades later. Ask your school how predictions reach US colleges, because early deadlines at many of them fall in early November (MIT's Early Action deadline, for example, is 1 November).

What IGCSE results contribute to a UK application

For a Year 13 applicant, IGCSEs are usually the only completed public exams on the application, which gives them weight.

UCAS asks applicants to list all qualifications from secondary education onwards, including GCSEs and international public exams, with results where they have them and pending qualifications marked as pending. So IGCSE grades sit on the application in full view, next to the predictions.

How much they count depends on the university and the course. Cambridge, for example, states on its accepted qualifications page that it has no GCSE requirement, but that it looks at GCSE results as an indicator of academic performance, within the context of the school where they were achieved. Some courses, particularly in medicine and other competitive fields, publish specific GCSE or IGCSE requirements. Always read the entry requirements on the course page itself.

IGCSEs matter in a second, quieter way. Teachers setting a prediction often look at the IGCSE result in that subject. A 9 in IGCSE Physics sets a different starting expectation from a 6, so a sixth form prediction starts taking shape in Years 10 and 11.

The Year 12 to Year 13 timeline

The table below uses the 2027 entry cycle, for students starting university in autumn 2027. The UCAS dates come from the UCAS dates and deadlines page. Check it every year, because exact dates shift.

On time zones: 18:00 UK time on 15 October is 21:00 in the UAE, because the UK is on summer time, and 18:00 UK time on 13 January is 22:00 in the UAE. Your school's internal deadline will be days or weeks earlier than either. Plan to that date.

What if predicted grades are low

First, check whether the prediction is actually low. Below what your child hopes for is not the same as unfair. If the end of Year 12 exams came in at B, a B prediction is the system working as intended. If you still believe a prediction under-reads your child, this is what you can legitimately do.

What helps

• Ask what the prediction is based on. A calm question to the subject teacher or sixth form lead, such as "Which assessments informed this, and what would you need to see to consider an A?", usually gets a useful answer.
• Offer new evidence, not opinions. A much improved piece of coursework, a strong recent timed paper marked in school, or a completed internal assessment draft is evidence. A parent's view of how clever the child is is not.
• Ask whether there is a review point. Some schools set provisional predictions in June and review them in September. If yours does, find out exactly what will be assessed and when.
• Use the assessments that remain. An in-school test before predictions are finalised is the most direct lever available. Prepare for it seriously.
• Build a shortlist that fits the prediction. Include courses at, slightly above and slightly below it, not five courses all needing grades the school has not predicted.
• Consider applying with achieved grades. A student who expects to outperform the prediction can apply after results, often with a gap year, and be judged on real grades rather than predicted ones.

What does not help

• Asking for a higher grade because a course needs it. UCAS guidance asks schools to set predictions independently of course choices, so this puts the teacher in an impossible position.
• Repeated escalation over a single grade. It rarely changes the outcome, and the same school writes the reference.
• Treating an outside tutor's view as a counter-prediction. A tutor can help a student produce better evidence, but cannot issue predicted grades for a UCAS application.
• Leaving it until the week of the deadline. Once the application is submitted, the predictions on it are fixed. UCAS guidance says universities may only consider the predicted grades sent with the application, and that even genuine data-entry errors may not be correctable for highly selective courses.

A Year 12 checklist for protecting predicted grades

Most of a family's influence over a prediction is exercised months before anyone mentions UCAS.

• Take the first sixth form assessments seriously. Teachers form a view of trajectory early.
• Keep every marked assessment, so any conversation with the school stays factual.
• Learn the mark scheme, not just the content. Many students know the material and lose marks on presentation.
• Keep coursework and internal assessment on schedule. A late or thin draft feeds straight into the teacher's judgement.
• Ask the school, in writing if needed, when predictions are set and whether there is a review point.

Frequently asked questions

What are predicted grades?

Predicted grades are the grades a school believes a student is likely to achieve in their final exams, set by teachers using evidence such as mocks, internal assessments and classwork. For UK applications they go on the UCAS application with the school reference, and universities use them to decide on conditional offers.

When are predicted grades given for UCAS?

Most schools set predicted grades between the end of Year 12 and the start of Year 13. They must be final before the application is submitted, so for Oxford, Cambridge and most medicine courses that means before the 15 October deadline, and for most other courses before the January equal consideration deadline.

How are IB predicted grades decided?

IB predicted grades are set by subject teachers using the student's work across the programme, including examinations, internal assessments and progress in the core. Schools usually predict a grade for each subject and an overall points total, and each school has its own review process.

Can predicted grades be changed after a UCAS application is sent?

In general, no. UCAS guidance says predictions should be finalised when the application is submitted and that universities may only consider the predicted grades sent with it. Even genuine data-entry errors may not be correctable for highly selective courses.

What happens if I do not meet my predicted grades?

The university will look at your final results against the conditions of your offer. If you narrowly miss, it may still confirm your place; if not, your insurance choice or Clearing are the next routes, and your school's adviser can help you work through the options.

Do IGCSE results matter for UK universities?

Yes. IGCSE results are listed on the UCAS application and many universities read them as evidence of academic performance, and some courses publish specific GCSE or IGCSE requirements. Check the entry requirements on each course page.

Can a tutor help improve predicted grades?

No tutor can set or change predicted grades; the school decides them. Good tuition can help a student perform better in the Year 12 assessments and coursework that teachers use as evidence.

Career Launcher UAE supports IB and A Level students in Dubai and Sharjah through the part of the process that shapes predictions: Year 12 assessments, coursework and exam technique, taught against current specifications and mark schemes. Subject support runs through our IBDP and A Level programmes, and our university guidance team helps families build a UCAS and US shortlist that fits the predictions the school has actually given.

Related reading: Choosing Grade 11 subjects around the degree you want and IB Diploma or A Levels after Year 11.